Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall

Clinton has lost 10% in just two weeks, her lead in Pennsylvania has shrunk to just 6 points according to today's Q Poll:


Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 - 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 52 - 36 percent lead for Sen. Clinton February 14...

Among likely Democratic primary voters, women back Clinton 53 - 39 percent, while men back Obama 50 - 43 percent; white voters go with Clinton 56 - 37 percent while black voters support Obama 69 - 23 percent. Democrats with a college degree favor Obama 53 - 41 percent, while voters without a degree back Clinton 52 - 39 percent.

This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 - 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 - 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points.

"Sen. Obama is closing in fast on Sen. Clinton in Pennsylvania, but it will probably be the voters in Ohio and Texas who decide what role the Keystone primary will play in the 2008 presidential election. If Sen. Clinton survives next week to fight another day, Pennsylvania could become the last battleground of the long Democratic contest. But an Obama win in Texas and Ohio would make it difficult for Clinton to halt her rival's momentum," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?Rele aseID=1148



Display:


Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Remember it's Puerto Rico now! Oh wait, that's a caucus!


by tom32182 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:11:24 AM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

A winner take all caucus.


by Piuma on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:14:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Not if they follow their own rules. Their rules say it's proportional. There is a small (and probably unwarranted) worry that they'll break those rules, but I doubt it.


by pastor john on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:17:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

That's a misconception. Al Gore and John Kerry won every delegate available, but that's because they were the last candidates standing when PR voted. It's a proportional contest, like every other.


by PantherDem on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Amazing, since Obama isn't even there. The pattern thusfar is that he trails 10-20+ points until he moves his campaign machine there, and then he gains ground with incredible rapidity. This was always the problem with TX and OH - even though Clinton was polling ahead, there was a big time gap for him to catch it up.

I have the feeling that sentiment is shifting away from Hillary precisely because people don't want to see it go on that long. (PA is June, right?)


by mattw on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:15:03 AM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

April.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:15:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Margin of error (none / 0)

Barack is in the red zone. He's got a good record of scoring most of the time when he closes to within the red zone.

Obama's got game.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:15:50 AM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Because we all know that the young voters are choosing Obama because of his strong positions on matters that will make a difference in their lives.... I mean, it's not like they're just following him because it's cool or cuz he has a ringtone or anything.  lol


by Catriley sez on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:17:15 AM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (2.00 / 3)

Yeah because the last thing we'd want is someone who could make liberal politics cool.  We might actually win the election then!


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:19:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Good point his program of national sevice in exchange for College financing really does hit home among my peers.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:21:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obviously Young Obama Voters are Shallow (2.00 / 1)

Stupid and uninformed, just liket eh guy in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kica8hmSd AM

What a stupid little sheep follower going after the enxt fad that moron is, huh?


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:22:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obviously Young Obama Voters are Shallow (none / 0)

Hey Walt,
  Get off your high horse or your cushy chair and give this kid a break.  At least he's engaging our political system, even going to so far as attending this rally outside the debate.
  So his response didn't articulate specific policies, but then again, the camera jammed in his face might have been a bit intimidating.  Thank God young people are concerned with the state of our country and the world and again see the political process as a way to address their concerns.
  Shitty ass comments like your's aren't encouraging and fire me up!
When I gave food to the poor they called me a Saint. When I asked why the poor were hungry they called me a communist.- Dom Helder Camera
by kentuckydave on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:25:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obviously Young Obama Voters are Shallow (none / 0)

I think Walt was being snarky.  I loved that video too.  He's not a kid though, he's in his late 20s, maybe early 30s.  Still he can run circles around most folks conversationwise.


by wonderama on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:07:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obviously Young Obama Voters are Shallow (none / 0)

I was snarking on the premise of teh guy I was posting to.

;-)


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:13:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obviously Young Obama Voters are Shallow (none / 0)

sorry


When I gave food to the poor they called me a Saint. When I asked why the poor were hungry they called me a communist.- Dom Helder Camera
by kentuckydave on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 07:39:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obviously Young Obama Voters are Shallow (none / 0)

Well thank God young'ens like him aren't running the country!


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:09:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

You're right.  People my age are just sheep who blindly follow what everyone else is doing.

Except those 41 percent who still are for Clinton. THEY are engaged, informed youth.


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
by fbihop on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:11:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Feb. 27th is not Apr. 22th. I sure would like to have your crystal ball so I can read the future Powerball numbers. enough already.


by Safe at Home on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:23:36 AM EST

firewall is moved (none / 0)

to 2016


by highgrade on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:26:12 AM EST

WRONG (none / 0)

The firewall is moving to 2012. Penn is betting on Obama losing in 2008.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:37:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WRONG (none / 0)

and Penn's previous bets on Obama losing states has played how?


John McCain: Four More Years of Failure.
by dannybauder on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:41:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: firewall is moved (2.00 / 2)

Come on folks.  We don't need to antogonize the Hillary supporters.  

The high road is MUCH more scenic a ride, my friends...taqke it and see for yourselves.


by a gunslinger on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: firewall is moved (none / 0)

Agreed. But you should not use the term "my friends" anymore. It creates a lot of negative feelings with me.


by marcotom on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:48:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: firewall is moved (none / 0)

how about :  

1) "me hearties...ARRRR!"

2) "blog buddies"

3) "party partners"

;)


by a gunslinger on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

So we're not allowed to trumpet good polls for our side?

"Give me a break"
-BC


by pastor john on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:42:57 AM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Attempts to drive Democrats apart are desperate attempts to re-elect the republicans. Democrats are more united than ever to drive the fundamentally wrong republicans from office. Wrong on the war, wrong the economy, wrong on rights, wrong on torture, wrong on corruption, wrong on the recession they created.

Republicans have again created the largest debt for any previous President. Even larger than Reagan's Debt which was greater than all previous Presidents before him.


by inexile on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:59:04 AM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Obama, the candidate, has never intentionally alienated, criticized, or spoke ill of any Clinton supporter.


by Piuma on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:00:53 PM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Yeah but you can't say the same for supporters.  Yes it happens on both sides, but for those who feel their candidate is winning, grace is even more important.  Can't we keep this a little lower key (i.e. no gloating, no slashing) while the primary just plays itself out.  You really don't win friends or voters by hammering them into the ground with glee.  Really you don't.  


by mady on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:15:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Meet me in Wyoming!


by AbeFroman on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:51:21 PM EST

I dunno (none / 0)

PA's a closed primary and you have to register at least a month ahead to vote. There's not going to be any "Dems for a day" here.


I want my UHC!
by votermom on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:05:13 PM EST

Back when (none / 0)

Hillary was leading all the polls, the Clinton people here spared no effort in rubbing it in the noses of the supporters of the other candidates.


by fladem on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:05:56 PM EST

The important news here (none / 0)

is that Obama leads McCain by 2, and Clinton trails McCain.


by fladem on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:06:39 PM EST

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

That's irrelevant.  Either Dem will win PA by double digits in November.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:24:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

Double digits? I doubt that. High singles maybe.


by conspiracy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:44:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And this will happen because.... (none / 0)

Why do you think the race will turn that much?


by fladem on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

Wrong, at least according to this - new poll out today shows McCain beating both Democrats, although it is much closer with Obama, yet McCain beats Obama on the economy (despite admitting he knows nothing of economics), but Hillary beats him on the economy by 10.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/


by cmugirl90 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

There are two things going on right now in McCain's favor.  First, he got a bounce from the botched smear from the NYT.  He first started leading in any national polls liek the day after that.  Most likely that is just a temporary bonce that will fade as soon as the NYT smeargate goes away.

Second, currently about 20% of the Democratic primary voters on either side are indicating that they won't vote for the other candidate in November.  That number cannot and will not hold up.  The vast majority is either posturing or partisan passion in the heat of a closely contested primary battle.  That's 10% of the total electorate that could come back to the Dem candidate once the primary is settled.  Even assuming 1/4 of that 20% are the petulent sore losers that are trumpeting their McCain support all over this site, that means that the Dem nominee will get at least a 7.5% bump (not a temporary bounce, but a real bump) once the primary is settled.  That is plenty to wipe out any lead McCain has over Obama and all but the furthest outliers of his lead against Clinton.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

Those are national numbers. Fladem was referring to the Quinnipiac numbers for PA where they both lead McCain by 2.


by conspiracy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

Oh I know - but think this shows an interesting shift. For weeks, we've been hearing about and seeing polls supposedly reflecting that Obama is unstoppable, but this is showing that something else is going on.  I don't really know how much of a "bounce" McCain got from the NYT article, but I think it's a fair point to consider.

Plus the fact that McCain has a 61% favorable rating, when many people (including me) think he's a doofus - NYT article aside.

I also know that Kerry was beating Bush by 7 at this time in 2004 and Dukakis was up by 11 in 1988, so it doesn't mean much - I just didn't think we'd see anything that dare show Obama slipping.


by cmugirl90 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The important news here (none / 0)

To be fair the national polls are all over the place - CBS/NYT and AP/Ipsos both have Obama up double digits. Fox also have Obama ahead but by a smaller margin. The uptick in support for McCain though does seem to coincide with the Times flap - previously disgruntled conservatives jumping to his defense perhaps?


by conspiracy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

Anyone seen Zeitgeist around these days?  Jerome's keeping a low profile also, maybe cuz his Gate is being crashed.


by verite on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:34:47 PM EST

Re: Goodbye Pennsylvania Firewall (none / 0)

It was his birthday yesterday so maybe he is a little ''worse for wear'' today!


by conspiracy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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